Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 11.703235 13.139115 14.788034 16.847107 19.386740 22.468529 26.575979
2024-10-13 9.640403 11.299064 13.343134 16.115430 19.893512 25.057720 33.049080
2024-10-20 8.298469 9.984100 12.154612 15.261036 19.795142 26.559843 38.362977
2024-10-27 7.367321 9.030726 11.241746 14.535814 19.606948 27.734058 43.493044
2024-11-03 7.414868 9.349859 12.050948 16.341445 23.560967 36.700222 68.047787
2024-11-10 7.169172 9.222151 12.190355 17.135335 26.055613 44.125064 96.710036
2024-11-17 6.589565 8.556301 11.447586 16.377226 25.585787 45.324819 109.835546
2024-11-24 6.237268 8.190070 11.119111 16.256862 26.284551 49.431002 138.736279
2024-12-01 5.924080 7.854796 10.802032 16.103925 26.875187 53.561048 176.441227
2024-12-08 5.681561 7.606649 10.597653 16.118983 27.817579 59.143001 238.919052
2024-12-15 5.500895 7.439009 10.506192 16.325257 29.232570 67.018896 359.050319
2024-12-22 5.217297 7.091702 10.086232 15.848955 28.946549 69.237235 447.015978
2024-12-29 5.014206 6.875166 9.896594 15.856075 29.996360 77.657528 767.016049
2025-01-05 4.723423 6.501931 9.410716 15.213251 29.261251 78.772960 1011.238781
2025-01-12 4.436017 6.119522 8.884083 14.433642 28.021768 77.153706 1177.744938
2025-01-19 4.188675 5.790744 8.432191 13.768002 26.982206 76.029764 1416.930557
2025-01-26 4.300891 6.054156 9.045163 15.423534 32.910226 116.695980 NaN
2025-02-02 4.268299 6.073259 9.216457 16.148593 36.459980 154.394363 NaN
2025-02-09 4.061095 5.785247 8.794535 15.456256 35.123889 152.030755 NaN
2025-02-16 3.938489 5.636634 8.627098 15.346193 35.795655 169.823480 NaN
2025-02-23 3.820657 5.490674 8.455242 15.206288 36.337011 188.734433 NaN
2025-03-02 3.727892 5.383786 8.351505 15.220065 37.471757 219.500838 NaN
2025-03-09 3.659737 5.316459 8.319849 15.408740 39.377120 272.165920 NaN